Every day, several times a day really, I go to Pollster.com (and Real Clear Politics and Electoral Vote) and look at all the (usually) pretty charts.
Over the last week or so they’ve stopped looking as awesome as they did over the previous two or three weeks. I’ve taken to using Post-It notes on the screen to pseudoscientifically project the current trend lines into the future.
Based on today’s lines, McCain will overtake Obama the day after Election Day. It seems likely that the curves will flatten out or bounce back a little in the opposite directions, but nonetheless it’s a nailbiter!
Not that I’d want to enable anyone’s poll-addiction, but as a fellow junkie, I’ve become a heavy user of FiveThirtyEight, where baseball stat expert Nate Silver analyzes the election by taking the historical accuracy of polls into consideration.
I’m with you, man. We can start a twelve-step program *after* election day.
The trend would have to worsen, actually, to do the trick for McCain, given the distribution of votes in states and Obama’s superior targeting of actual swing states.
oh, yes, and let me second that re 538. It’s my bible right now.
Yes, I neglected to mention fivethirtyeight.com. In fact, there are a few others I look at as well. Like I said, a complete junkie.
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